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What next for Sanna Marin? Finland’s rock star PM

2023/04/09/12:14
in US politics
Reading Time: 7 mins read
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What next for Sanna Marin? Finland’s rock star PM
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She led her nation into Nato, but was criticised for soaring debt and parties. Still aged just 37, she’s stepping away from a country in flux

She became prime minister at 34, steered her country successfully through Covid and into Nato, and survived a global furore over her love of a good night out.

Last week, however, the best known Finnish leader in decades said she was retiring to the backbenches after her Social Democratic Party was edged into third place in the country’s general election. Sanna Marin made her announcement hours after the former New Zealand leader, Jacinda Ardern, 42, a fellow left-winger with whom she is often compared, delivered a parliamentary valedictory speech of her own in Wellington.

But is the party really over for the Nordic leader as she bows out after less than three-and-half years? Or is she merely taking a pause before returning to the European — or world — stage?

The Social Democrats were this weekend putting a brave face on last Sunday’s result, which has left the task of forming a government to rival Petteri Orpo, 53, a staid figure more likely to be found hiking or fishing than on the dance floor, whose centre-right National Coalition party topped the poll.

“The government loses and the opposition wins. That’s the dynamic of politics,” said Antton Rönnholm, the Social Democrats’ secretary, noting that, under Marin, their party had increased its share of the vote — a feat only achieved twice before by an incumbent leader in modern Finnish politics.

“She was the most popular candidate for prime minister, but, of course, obviously also divisive,” he added. “Successful young left-wing women are a major red flag for many older male right-wing voters.”

Ultimately, though, it was not the video of Marin’s exuberant partying — which went viral last summer — that proved her undoing. The contest centred instead on how best to tackle the economic headwinds hitting Finland harder than many of its neighbours. Despite being named the happiest country in the world for the sixth time, Finland slipped into recession last autumn as a result of the energy crisis, and its economy is set to shrink another 0.2 per cent this year, according to its central bank.

Marin wanted to spend her way out of recession, letting the national debt rise in the meantime, but Orpo’s party called instead on Finns to tighten their belts — successfully appealing to the country’s tradition of fiscal conservatism.

“The debate on public debt is more of a moral or a cultural issue than an economic one in Finland,” lamented Rönnholm. A similar stance was adopted by the Finns Party, the far-right nationalists, who came second.

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“The big picture was this was a victory for these two opposition parties, which together put on six percentage points,” said Antti Ronkainen, a researcher of political economy at the University of Helsinki. The outgoing prime minister, he added, went “all-in” waging an “aggressive” campaign against Orpo and Riikka Purra, the Finns’ popular leader, but “people wanted a change from Marin’s coalition”.

By making it clear that she would not take a ministerial role in any new government, Marin has lowered the political temperature and left open the slim possibility that Orpo could form an alliance with her party.

He is more likely, however, to build a coalition with the Finns, who share his hawkish economic views, although their harsh stance on immigration, scepticism about climate change and hostility to the EU could prove problematic.

Either way, Orpo will also need at least one of the six smaller parties in the fragmented parliament.

Marin’s departure will be mourned especially in Tampere, which lies in the electoral district for which she has been an MP since 2015; this time she almost doubled her votes compared with the previous election in 2019. The lakeside city, Finland’s third largest, has been at the heart of much of her personal and professional life and she still owns a flat there. It was in a modest one-storey wooden house in Pirkkala, a sleepy community of 10,000 people a few miles away, she spent much of her childhood.

She then studied at Tampere University, graduating with a master’s in administrative studies while working part-time in the food hall of the local branch of Sokos, a department store.

“I’m a little bit sad she’s gone. She knew how to do her job and it was good she was a woman,” said Wilma Koski, 19, one of its current staff and a Marin voter. “I’m not sure about the new prime minister.”

Marin’s upbringing was complicated and her rise through politics remarkable

Marin’s upbringing was complicated and her rise through politics remarkable

As a student, Marin plunged into progressive politics, spending time with friends who shared her passion for equality, social justice and the environment. Among those she impressed was Tiina Isotalus, 38, a fellow Social Democrat on the same course who now heads the council in the western town of Kokkola. She said: “Everybody in our group was very socially aware and it was evident she wanted a career in politics. She was always going to meetings.”

Marin also knew how to have a good time: appropriately enough, her first job at the student association was in charge of “organising parties and excursions”.

It was at the university that the future prime minister met her partner, Markus Räikkönen, 37, whom Isotalus remembers as “a really nice guy, really down to earth and very likeable”. The two had a daughter, Emma, in January 2018 and married in August 2020.

She was less forthcoming with fellow students about her home life. When she was small, her mother — whose identity she has never revealed — divorced her alcoholic father, Lauri, and began a relationship with another woman, who helped bring her up. “It was something that couldn’t be discussed,” she has said. “We were not recognised as a true family or equal with others.”

Her relations with her father remained distant — as she revealed in 2020 shortly after becoming prime minister. “If you ask me, ‘Do I feel like I have a father?’ I feel that I don’t,” she told British Vogue. He died that June 2020 aged 65; Marin reportedly did not attend his funeral.

Despite troubles at home, her political ascent was remarkable: within months of her election to Tampere city council, aged 27, she had become its head. Two years later, in 2014, she was elected national vice-chairwoman of the Social Democrats and maintained the pace after she was elected to parliament the next year.

Within months of her election to Tampere city council Marin was leading it

Within months of her election to Tampere city council Marin was leading it

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“There are two reasons for Sanna Marin’s historic rise,” said Mikael Jungner, a former party secretary. “First of all she is a really tactical politician, but secondly she is a really lucky politician.”

When Covid hit shortly after she came to power, Marin impressed her compatriots with her calm, competent handling of the crisis. Her government also won plaudits for the speed with which it brought the country into Nato, which it formally joined last Tuesday. Marin, like many fellow Finns, had long been opposed to membership. That changed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February last year.

STN.NATO_BORDER.09.04.23.R

More controversial was Marin’s social life, which she described as “doing all kind of things that are normal for my age” but which her opponents portrayed as unbecoming for a prime minister.

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And while the glossy magazines loved her for her youthful style, her partying was a gift to the right wing tabloids, who were unremittingly hostile.

Last summer, a leaked video showed Marin dancing at 4am in a Helsinki club alongside a pop singer, an influencer and television and radio hosts. Amid claims some of those present had been taking drugs, she took — and passed — a test.

Marin will remain as party leader until the autumn while a successor is chosen. There is speculation about her next move despite her insistence she will stay on in parliament. Isotalus does not think she will be content for long being a backbencher. “All kinds of jobs are open to her,” she said. “Retiring at the age of 37 from being prime minister and globally famous she can do whatever she wants.”

Source: The Times

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