Indonesia’s equity market opened on a firm footing on Thursday, with the Jakarta Composite setting a cautious positive tone by 03:15 CET (09:15 WIB) as investors weighed recent monetary easing against global tech-led volatility. Banks, telcos and consumer names were among the early focus, while energy lagged on softer crude cues.
Opening tone and early movers
The first prints suggested a measured bid across large-cap financials and defensives, consistent with a market still digesting external swings and looking for domestic anchors. Lenders and insurers benefited from a friendlier rate trajectory and resilient credit quality, while staples and telcos attracted flow on earnings visibility. Materials and selected miners were more mixed, reflecting a subdued start for commodities and ongoing price normalisation after mid-year strength.
Currency and rates backdrop
A steadier rupiah and the central bank’s recent shift to a more supportive stance continue to frame the conversation for local risk assets. The combination of contained inflation and firmer growth impulses has kept Indonesia’s macro narrative comparatively constructive versus several regional peers. For equities, that translates into scope for incremental multiple support in domestics—so long as the currency remains orderly and external funding conditions don’t tighten abruptly.
Flows and positioning
Foreign participation has been selective rather than aggressive, with investors preferring liquid, policy-sensitive sectors and names with clean balance sheets. Domestic institutions and retail accounts remain important marginal buyers, leaning into dividend stories and structurally advantaged consumer franchises. New issuance and secondary placements have been absorbed without material dislocation, though books have favoured quality over cyclicality.
Earnings and sector dynamics
Banks remain the bellwether: net interest margins may drift lower as policy eases, but healthy fee income, disciplined cost control and improving credit growth are mitigating factors. In consumers, premiumisation and formalisation keep driving revenue mix, even as price elasticity is monitored closely. Telcos continue to prioritise ARPU stability and capex discipline; consolidation tailwinds and 5G monetisation prospects help sentiment. Energy and resources are more tactically driven, correlating with global demand signals and China-linked datapoints.
What to watch next
Into the Jakarta afternoon, focus sits on: (1) foreign net flow trends and whether opening strength broadens beyond financials and defensives; (2) guidance from heavyweight lenders and consumer majors on second-half run-rates; (3) rupiah stability around key technical levels; and (4) any fresh colour on fiscal priorities and infrastructure spend that could catalyse construction and cement.
Bottom line: with policy winds shifting supportive and earnings quality holding up, Indonesia’s equity story retains a constructive bias. Execution risk remains—particularly around currency, global tech volatility and commodity skews—but the market’s early tone suggests dips in high-quality domestics should continue to find sponsorship.
REFH – Newshub, 28 August 2025
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