Jamaican companies expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Jamaica’s target during the coming year, despite a modest improvement in expectations. The central bank’s latest business survey showed that respondents forecast inflation of 6.7 per cent over the next 12 months, down from 7.0 per cent previously but still above the official target range of 4–6 per cent.
Business costs remain under pressure
The survey covered 338 chief executives, managing directors and financial controllers. It was conducted between 10 June and 9 July, before annual inflation increased from 6.7 per cent in June to 7.5 per cent in July.
Stock replacement was identified by 33.4 per cent of respondents as the cost most likely to record the largest increase. Utilities followed at 22.2 per cent, while 19.5 per cent selected fuel and transportation. Only 7.7 per cent regarded wages and salaries as the principal source of pressure.
Currency and interest rates monitored
Businesses expect the Jamaican dollar to depreciate by approximately 1.7 per cent during the next 12 months. A weaker currency could raise the domestic cost of imported goods, energy and equipment, adding further pressure to operating expenses.
Almost half of all respondents expected the Bank of Jamaica to leave its policy rate unchanged. Among financial-sector respondents, 70.4 per cent anticipated no change, while 18.5 per cent expected a marginal increase.
The central bank maintained its policy rate at 5.50 per cent in August, judging that current inflation pressures were largely caused by temporary external and administrative factors.
Limited room for monetary easing
The Bank of Jamaica expects average inflation to range between 5.4 and 6.4 per cent over the next eight quarters. Inflation is forecast to remain above target during the September quarter before gradually moderating.
Persistent price pressures could delay interest-rate reductions, keeping borrowing costs elevated for households and businesses. The outlook therefore remains cautiously positive, but dependent on energy prices, exchange-rate stability and imported costs.
Newshub Editorial in North America – 1 September 2026
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