US President Donald Trump has announced that the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia will sign a historic peace agreement at the White House on Friday, potentially ending a decades-long conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and destabilised the South Caucasus region.
Historic diplomatic breakthrough after thirty years of conflict
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will attend the White House ceremony, marking the first time the two nations’ leaders have committed to signing a comprehensive peace deal. The agreement could potentially put an end to decades of conflict that has its roots in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The meeting represents a significant diplomatic achievement for the Trump administration, which has positioned itself as a key mediator in resolving one of the world’s most enduring territorial disputes. The move commits the two countries to a future peace deal amid increasing US influence in the South Caucasus, marking a shift away from traditional Russian mediation in the region.
Complex territorial dispute spanning generations
The conflict began in 1988 when ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh demanded the transfer of what was then the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast from Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War took place from February 1988 to May 1994, resulting in Armenian control over the disputed territory and surrounding areas.
Their 2020 war saw Baku regain most of the territory it lost to Armenia in the 1990s, with Azerbaijan’s one-day operation in September 2023 taking back the rest of the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The territorial changes have created new realities on the ground, with Baku remaining focused on the integration and economic reconstruction of the region, resettling ethnic Azeris who were displaced during the Nagorno-Karabakh Wars.
Failed previous mediation attempts
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s leaders met in the UAE last month but reached no breakthrough in the decades-long conflict, highlighting the challenges facing international mediators. Russia-brokered peace in Nagorno-Karabakh has usually tended to be fragile and fleeting, creating opportunities for alternative diplomatic approaches.
In March 2025, the two governments announced they were ready to sign a peace deal to end the nearly forty-year conflict, setting the stage for Friday’s White House ceremony. The timing suggests both nations recognise the need for a durable settlement after years of intermittent warfare and failed ceasefires.
Strategic implications for regional stability
The peace agreement carries significant implications for the broader South Caucasus region, which has served as a crossroads between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. A successful resolution could enhance energy security, trade routes, and regional cooperation whilst reducing the risk of future military escalations.
The White House ceremony represents Trump’s first major foreign policy achievement in his second term, demonstrating American diplomatic influence in a region traditionally dominated by Russian mediation efforts. Success in brokering this agreement could establish precedents for US involvement in other regional conflicts and strengthen America’s position in the strategically important Caucasus.
REFH – Newshub, 8 August 2025
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