Civilian casualties in Ukraine rose by 26% during 2025, according to new research shared exclusively with international media, underscoring a sharp escalation in harm to non-combatants as Russian forces increasingly targeted cities and critical infrastructure across the country.
Researchers link surge to intensified urban warfare
The findings point to a sustained pattern of missile, drone, and artillery strikes on densely populated areas, with residential districts, energy networks, and transport hubs absorbing a growing share of the violence. Analysts say the increase reflects a strategic shift toward pressure on civilian life and economic resilience rather than purely military objectives.
Independent monitors working alongside the United Nations have documented rising fatalities and injuries in major population centres, including Kyiv and Kharkiv, where repeated strikes disrupted electricity, heating, and water services during critical winter months.
Infrastructure becomes a frontline
Researchers say attacks on power stations, substations, and municipal facilities played a central role in last year’s spike. Beyond immediate casualties, these strikes amplified secondary risks, forcing evacuations, overwhelming hospitals, and leaving vulnerable communities exposed to cold and shortages.
Humanitarian agencies report that emergency responders are now operating in increasingly dangerous conditions, often racing to scenes of impact while follow-up strikes remain a persistent threat. Schools, apartment blocks, and shopping areas were among the most frequently damaged civilian structures in 2025.
A widening humanitarian toll
Ukraine’s authorities estimate millions remain internally displaced, while cross-border refugee flows continue to strain neighbouring states. Aid organisations warn that prolonged exposure to bombardment is also driving a mental-health crisis, particularly among children and the elderly.
The researchers’ assessment aligns with broader international concerns that civilian protection standards are being steadily eroded. Despite repeated calls for restraint, the tempo of attacks on urban environments has not eased, reinforcing fears of a grinding conflict with deepening social costs.
Geopolitical implications and investor risk
For global markets, the casualty surge highlights the entrenched nature of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Prolonged instability continues to influence energy prices, agricultural supply chains, and defence spending across Europe.
Risk analysts note that sustained targeting of infrastructure raises long-term reconstruction costs while increasing uncertainty around regional growth prospects. Governments and multilateral lenders are already factoring higher rebuilding budgets into forward projections, even as active hostilities persist.
Calls for accountability grow louder
Legal experts argue that systematic strikes on civilian areas could carry significant consequences under international humanitarian law. Rights groups are pressing for expanded investigations and documentation efforts, saying detailed casualty data will be essential for future accountability processes.
While diplomatic efforts to de-escalate remain stalled, researchers stress that the numbers tell a stark story: the burden of the conflict is falling ever more heavily on ordinary Ukrainians. As 2026 unfolds, they warn that without a shift in military tactics, civilian harm is likely to remain elevated — with lasting repercussions for the country’s demographic and economic recovery.
Newshub Editorial in Europe – 16 February 2026
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