London – The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is entering its seventh consecutive week of gains, a run that has pushed the cryptocurrency to a new all-time high. However, this extended period of growth has left it overdue for a significant correction, with analysts and traders closely watching for signs of a potential pullback. Following historical patterns from previous bull cycles, market experts are questioning whether the current price action can defy history or if a sharp dip is imminent before the next leg of the rally.
Analysing the historical cycle
Bitcoin’s bull markets are known for their cyclical nature, characterised by explosive upward movements followed by steep corrections. Analysis from prominent traders indicates that after a halving event, the subsequent “price discovery uptrends” typically end after five to seven weeks. Bitcoin’s current six-week run puts it squarely in this historic zone for a new corrective phase. In 2021, the last bull run saw a similar pattern, with a sharp drop-off after a prolonged period of gains. Should history repeat itself, a correction of 15% to 30% could occur, a drawdown not uncommon in previous cycles, which could see the price drop back toward key support levels.
A perfect storm of factors
Several factors have fuelled the current uptrend. The approval of new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sustained institutional inflows have provided a significant and consistent source of new capital. Additionally, the pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration, including the appointment of a new SEC chairman, has bolstered market confidence and provided much-needed regulatory clarity. However, despite these bullish catalysts, on-chain data suggests a cooling of momentum. While many long-term holders have absorbed profit-taking and remain confident in the long-term outlook, a recent decline in trading volume and a struggle to decisively break above the $120,000 level point to indecision among new buyers.
Implications for traders and investors
For short-term traders and new investors, the prospect of a correction is a source of anxiety. Analysts suggest that a drop to the $110,000 to $112,000 range would be a healthy and expected move, flushing out over-leveraged positions and providing a new entry point for buyers. However, a break below this level could signal a deeper retracement. For long-term investors, the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly positive. As long as Bitcoin holds above key moving averages, the long-term upward trend is expected to continue. A correction in the coming weeks would simply set the stage for an even more powerful rally in the fourth quarter, aligning with historical precedent for a “melt-up” to new all-time highs before the end of the year.
REFH – Newshub, 18 August 2025
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