The iconic flavour of a gin and tonic, a beloved British staple, faces an uncertain future as climate change disrupts the production of its key ingredients, according to a study published on 18 June 2025 by the University of Reading. Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns are threatening juniper berries, citrus fruits, and quinine, raising concerns for distillers and bartenders alike.
The study, conducted by environmental scientists, highlights how juniper, the cornerstone of gin’s distinctive piney taste, is under strain. Juniper shrubs, primarily harvested in Mediterranean regions like Spain and Italy, thrive in cool, stable climates. However, prolonged heatwaves and droughts—such as Europe’s record-breaking 2023 summer—have reduced yields by up to 20% in some areas. Lead researcher Dr. Emily Carter noted that warmer winters disrupt juniper’s reproductive cycle, potentially shrinking berry production further. Northern Europe, including parts of Scotland, may become viable for cultivation, but scaling up could take decades, challenging gin producers like Edinburgh Gin and Sipsmith.
Tonic water’s key component, quinine, derived from cinchona trees in tropical regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru, faces similar risks. The study found that erratic rainfall and rising temperatures are reducing cinchona yields, with some plantations reporting 15% declines since 2020. Deforestation and land-use changes exacerbate the issue, threatening supply chains for tonic brands like Fever-Tree. Synthetic quinine, while an option, lacks the nuanced bitterness of natural extracts, potentially altering the drink’s crisp profile.
Citrus fruits, essential for garnishes and botanical infusions, are also vulnerable. Spain, a major supplier of lemons and oranges, saw a 25% drop in citrus production in 2024 due to drought and heat stress, per the study. Smaller, less flavourful fruits are becoming common, impacting the zesty notes in gins like Tanqueray No. Ten. Alternative sources, such as South Africa, face similar climate pressures, limiting global supply options.
The economic ripple effects are significant. The UK’s gin industry, valued at £3.2 billion in 2024, supports thousands of jobs, with exports to 140 countries. A potential 10-15% price hike for premium gins and tonics could dampen consumer demand, particularly in pubs already grappling with rising costs. Smaller craft distilleries, reliant on local botanicals, may struggle most, while larger brands might pivot to synthetic or alternative ingredients, risking consumer backlash over authenticity.
Distillers are exploring solutions. Some, like Plymouth Gin, are experimenting with climate-resilient botanicals or sustainable farming practices, such as drip irrigation for juniper. Others advocate for carbon-neutral production to mitigate broader climate impacts. The study urges governments to support agricultural adaptation, citing successful trials in drought-resistant citrus varieties.
For consumers, the classic G&T may soon taste different or cost more. “It’s not just a drink—it’s cultural heritage,” said Carter, urging action to preserve its legacy. As climate challenges mount, the gin and tonic’s refreshing simplicity hangs in the balance, prompting a sobering toast to innovation and resilience.
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