On 17 June 2025, a study published by NASA revealed a dramatic increase in the intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, over the past five years. Utilising data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites, researchers found that these events have become more frequent, longer-lasting, and more severe, with the intensity in 2024 reaching twice the average recorded between 2003 and 2020. This article explores the findings, their implications, and the broader context of climate change driving these trends.
Key Findings from NASA’s Study
The NASA study, co-produced by Dr Bailing Li and Dr Matthew Rodell from the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, analysed 20 years of data (2002–2021) from GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites, with updated statistics for 2024. These satellites measure changes in Earth’s gravity field to detect water storage anomalies, providing a comprehensive view of hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts. The researchers developed a metric combining the extent, duration, and severity of events to quantify their intensity.
The data revealed that from 2015 to 2021—encompassing seven of the nine warmest years on record—the frequency of extreme wet and dry events rose to four per year, compared to three per year in the previous 13 years. In 2024, the intensity of these events was double the 2003–2020 average, a trend described as “alarming” by Dr Li. Notable examples include the ongoing 2019–2025 pluvial in central Africa, which raised Lake Victoria’s level by over one metre, and the 2015–2016 Brazilian drought, which led to water rationing in major cities. The study, published in Nature Water in 2023 with updated figures requested by Global Water Intelligence, noted a strong correlation between the intensity of these extremes and global mean temperature, suggesting climate change as the primary driver.
Climate Change as the Driving Force
The NASA researchers attribute the rise in extreme weather events to human-induced climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning. Since the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases have trapped heat in the atmosphere, warming the planet and disrupting the water cycle. Warmer air holds more water vapour, leading to more intense rainfall and flooding in some regions, while increased evaporation exacerbates droughts in others. The study found that the intensity of extremes correlates more strongly with global temperature increases than with natural climate patterns like El Niño, reinforcing the link to anthropogenic warming.
Dr Rodell noted that global warming’s impact on the water cycle is “tangible,” with warmer temperatures causing more intense droughts and wet periods that affect people, economies, and agriculture worldwide. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (2021) supports this, stating that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and droughts.
Regional and Global Impacts
The NASA data highlights specific regional impacts. In the United States, the Southwest has faced severe droughts, while coastal areas experience increased flooding due to sea level rise and storm surges. For example, the 2020 Midland County, Michigan, floods, triggered by dam failures, were mapped using NASA data to aid response efforts. Globally, events like the 2019 Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique and the 2023 floods in Greece, driven by unusually warm sea temperatures, illustrate the growing severity of weather extremes.
Professor Richard Betts from the Met Office and Exeter University described the findings as a “stark reminder” that a hotter planet leads to more severe floods and droughts. He warned that societies are unprepared for these changes, as infrastructure and lifestyles are built around historical weather patterns, not the increasingly extreme conditions driven by climate change. WaterAid’s recent report echoed this, noting that “whiplash” events—rapid shifts from drought to flood—are devastating millions of lives, particularly in major cities.
Implications for Society and Adaptation
The economic and human toll of extreme weather is significant. In the U.S., floods and droughts account for over 20% of economic losses from natural disasters annually, with similar impacts worldwide, particularly in developing nations where vulnerable communities bear the brunt. The United Nations reported that from 2000 to 2019, climate-related disasters like floods doubled compared to the 1980–1999 period, causing $2.97 trillion in global economic losses and 1.23 million deaths.
NASA’s data underscores the need for improved resilience and adaptation. Dr Rodell emphasised the importance of monitoring hydrological extremes to prepare for and mitigate future events. For water companies, as noted by Christopher Gasson of Global Water Intelligence, the challenge is managing both too much and too little water. Adaptation measures, such as updating building codes, enhancing drainage systems, and improving early warning systems, are critical but lag behind the pace of change. Professor Betts called for urgent action to reduce emissions and adapt to the “changes that are already happening.”
Cautions and Limitations
While the NASA study points to climate change as the most likely cause, Dr Li cautioned that proving causation requires a longer dataset. The steep rise in intensity was unexpected, even compared to global temperature increases, suggesting other factors may contribute. Dr Rodell also noted the need for further research to understand the full scope of these trends. Despite these caveats, the data aligns with broader scientific consensus, including IPCC reports and attribution studies, which show that 74% of over 750 extreme weather events studied globally were made more likely or severe by climate change.
NASA’s latest data, derived from GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites, reveals a troubling escalation in the intensity of extreme weather events, with 2024 figures showing a doubling compared to the 2003–2020 average. Driven by human-induced climate change, these events—floods, droughts, and more—are becoming more frequent, severe, and prolonged, posing significant risks to societies worldwide. The findings call for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance adaptation measures to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure. As the planet continues to warm, NASA’s satellite data will remain crucial for monitoring and responding to these evolving challenges.
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