- India:
- Nifty 50 edged up ~0.06% to 24,732, while the Sensex dipped 0.1% to 81,034 — reflecting restraint after last week’s losses financialexpress.com+5schwab.com+5reuters.com+5reuters.com+1financialexpress.com+1.
- Foreign investors stayed cautious, with ongoing selling by FIIs, though domestic institutions continued to buy indiatoday.in.
- Broader Asia:
- The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index slipped about 0.1%, amid worries that escalating the Israel–Iran conflict might disrupt oil flows indiatoday.in+3reuters.com+3m.economictimes.com+3.
- Nikkei climbed ~0.8–0.9%, while Kospi, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and ASX all displayed modest gains (0.2–0.6%), with energy and mining names particularly strong theguardian.com+8reuters.com+8morningstar.com+8.
- Key Drivers:
- Middle East tensions between Israel and Iran boosted oil prices (~1%+ overnight), squeezing risk appetite reuters.com+2reuters.com+2indiatoday.in+2.
- Higher oil increases inflation expectations, making central banks (Fed, BoJ, ECB) less likely to ease soon .
- Safe-haven flows into the dollar and gold, with currencies like the yen and euro weakening fortune.com+2reuters.com+2theguardian.com+2.
🇪🇺 Europe & 🇺🇸 U.S. Markets Outlook
Europe
- Futures indicate a subdued open, pressured by elevated oil prices and cautious sentiment after Asia’s flat close financialexpress.com+5morningstar.com+5reuters.com+5.
- Major catalysts:
- Little scheduled data later today.
- Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risks and energy-related inflation marketpulse.comreuters.com.
- Structural tailwinds:
- Europe benefits from weaker dollar, lower valuations (~P/E ~13.5 vs U.S. ~20.4), and a €1 trillion German stimulus—pushing STOXX 600 and DAX to record highs recently reuters.com+2reuters.com+2businessinsider.com+2.
U.S.
- S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow futures are modestly higher (~+0.1–0.2%), as investors weigh oil-driven inflation against resumed U.S.–China tariff pause talks .
- Key influencers ahead:
- No major data today, but attention remains on upcoming central bank meetings and inflation reports.
- Oil-linked inflation may deter the Fed from rate cuts in June/July; expectations now shift to possible easing in September reuters.com.
- Medium-term picture:
- U.S. domestic data (e.g., slow small‑business sentiment) and ongoing trade uncertainties suggest volatility ahead timesofindia.indiatimes.com+15marketpulse.com+15finance.yahoo.com+15.
- Global funds continue diverting from U.S. equity toward Europe, Japan, and emerging markets indiatimes.com+4businessinsider.com+4reuters.com+4.
🔮 Summary & What to Expect
| Region | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Asia | Cautious rebound, driven by energy stocks and Middle East risk; financial sector lagging amid FII outflows and oil worries. |
| Europe | Soft open is likely; low volatility until major events; structural support from fiscal stimulus and improved valuations. |
| U.S. | Flat-to-positive futures; oil pressure dampens rate-cut hopes; attention on Fed, inflation, trade headlines. |
If oil prices continue rising on Middle East tensions, expect ripple effects—higher inflation across regions, wider bond yields, and central banks taking a more hawkish stance. Still, value-seeking investors might see buying opportunities, especially in Europe and select Asia-Pacific stocks.
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