In spite of recession concerns, Chase maps out its continued retail banking growth from a position of strength. CEO of consumer & community banking Marianne Lake, potential heir to Jamie Dimon, is playing her cards and laying lots of bets.
When meeting with securities analysts, JPMorgan Chase officials love to refer to the bank’s “fortress balance sheet,” to describe, among other things, its depth of capital strength. An analogy that Chase hasn’t used, but could, would refer to the company’s marketing and development advantages as poker chips. When you get to be the biggest U.S. bank, you have enough chips to cover every decent bet on the table.
A stretch? Not when listening to Marianne Lake, CEO, consumer & community banking, during the company’s 2025 investor day.
Take the outlook for deposits: Lake outlined the four potential economic scenarios the bank is using in its planning, from a non-recessionary soft landing through to a deep and early recession. In spite of that range of possibilities, in all cases Lake says Chase expects deposit growth through 2027.
“In fact,” Lake said, “in lower-rate scenarios which often accompany periods of stress, we benefit from strong growth, including flight to quality.”
Lake, among the Chase officers considered to be in the running for Jamie Dimon’s CEO chair, spent close to an hour detailing how intensively the consumer function continues to invest in all the pieces of retail banking, from Chase’s ongoing branch push to its ravenous appetite for card growth.
Chase has 5,000 branches in 48 states, and between that and its digital platforms, has relationships with over 91 million customers, according to Lake. The bank claims the network, which is both expanding and in-filling its footprint, covers 68% of the U.S. population.
In addition, Lake highlighted activities that other banks can’t even dream of, such as its travel business.
In 2024, she told analysts, 4.2 million customers booked travel with Chase, making it the number three U.S. travel provider. Chase began assembling acquisitions to create its travel service in 2021.
Lake also gave a quick update on Chase Media Solutions, a program launched in 2024 to bring merchant-paid marketing offers to Chase customers through the bank’s various digital channels. She said that 16 million customers have activated offers, and spent $12 billion through those offers, since launch.
Pay-over-time programs, offered in multiple ways both through Chase credit and debit cards, have continued to ramp up. Lake said customers had tapped pay-over-time options to the tune of $11 billion in 2024, up 25% from 2023.
Here are more detailed highlights concerning key consumer areas for Chase.
The Branch Push Keeps on Going, and Going, and…
Chase’s total branch count has been relatively flat, with consolidations and closures in mature markets balancing approximately 875 newly built branches through the end of 2024. In her presentation, Lake indicated that 350 or more new locations were being planned for 2025-2027. She said that the bank’s share of retail deposits in the U.S. has increased 220 basis points since 2019 as a result of the new branches. The branch system as a whole has seen a 5% rise in checking accounts since 2019.
Chase says that it has national market share in retail deposits of 11.3%, as of the end of 2024, and has confidence that it can reach its long-term goal of a 15% national retail deposit share. Its target, in terms of population coverage, is 75% versus the current 68%.
The new locations represent a big driver of those goals, both in terms of investment in properties and investment in the people staffing them. (The company has also been opening specialized JPMorgan Financial Center wealth management offices in selected cities.)
“Our investments in branches, bankers and advisors pretty consistently break even in less than four years, with new branches and advisors making meaningful contributions to deposits and investment gains,” said Lake.
Lake said that new branches built in expansion markets are already responsible for 40% of the bank’s total retail deposits.
Lake also noted that even branches over 10 years old, the perceived age of maturity, still produce accelerated growth in deposits for years afterwards. She pointed out that the bank estimates that the 20% of its network that is under 10 years old has over $160 billion in deposit potential, but that the next 10% of its network that is between 10 and 15 years old still has another $50 billion of deposit potential in it.
“Nothing is in the bag,” said Lake, “but that is a pretty serious tailwind.”
Meanwhile, Lake said that Chase has been developing products for starter and “low-mass” customers over the last few years to plant more relationships.
“When customers are in the right product for them, we see greater satisfaction, higher wallet share, and greater retention,” says Lake.
Chase Wants to Play Its Hand at More Tables
An important note about the economic outlook came early in Lake’s presentation. She said that while consumer sentiment has weakened, Chase is not seeing it in credit performance. She said that financial health measures don’t show signs of increased stress. Two points here: First, consumer cash buffers have normalized after the Covid period and are steady, and, second, consumer debt payments-to-income ratios for low-income consumers are close to historical norms.
Hence the bank’s confidence in continuing to build its card portfolios. Lake reported that new card accounts have been growing by approximately 10 million per year from 2022 on, with 98% account retention. The bank currently holds 17.3% of outstanding U.S. card debt, and hopes to reach 20% in time. Share of outstandings has grown on average about 90 basis points a year over the last five years and about 100 basis points in 2023 and 2024.
Lake chose an unusual analogy to speak of card growth: pancakes.
“In the card area, we think of long-term performance like a stacking of pancakes, one vintage on top of the other,” said Lake. “Acquisition costs are amortized up front. Over one year, each vintage matures and peaks in performance by year three, by which time it’s paid back, then it stabilizes consistently delivering annuity value.”
Two focuses of further growth: cards for the affluent and cards for small business. Both are areas where Chase is not the leader. Lake wants to change that.
Home Lending: A Careful Stance Pending a Return to Volume
At one time, in his widely read annual shareholder letter, Jamie Dimon speculated about whether Chase would stay in the mortgage business. Some changes have been made since, such as Chase getting out of brokered mortgages, at least under current market circumstances.
However, while Chase has reduced mortgage lending — and loan production staff, by 35% — Lake made it clear that the bank is not getting out of the business.
“Home lending is critically important to our customers in key moments of their lives. It is a relationship product,” said Lake. “When affluent customers get a home loan with us, we deepen relationships with them in deposits and investments.”
Finally, one fresh move: In the first quarter, Chase launched a home equity product. A number of large banks had exited that market, partly as cash-out refis had become more popular when rates were lower.
On that, Lake said the bank has improved its digital capabilities and predictive modeling.
“That will position us to take advantage of refi opportunities when rates come down,” said Lake.
Source: The Financial Brand
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