Bitcoin is around the corner from what is normally one of its two best months, and one prediction tool sees a return to BTC price discovery as a result.
Bitcoin
BTC $83,171 can hit new all-time highs by June this year if historical patterns repeat, network economist Timothy Peterson said.
Data uploaded to X on March 15 gives BTC/USD around two-and-a-half months to beat its $109,000 record.
April could spark 50% BTC price upside
Bitcoin has declined 30% after topping out in mid-January. The extent of the drop is characteristic of bull market corrections, and Peterson keenly senses the potential for a comeback.
“Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range,” he determined alongside a chart comparing BTC price cycles.
“Nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October. It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June.”
Peterson has created various Bitcoin price metrics over the years. One of them, Lowest Price Forward, has successfully defined levels below which BTC/USD never falls after a crossing above them at a certain point.
After its recovery from multi-year lows in March 2020, Lowest Price Forward predicted that BTC price would never trade under $10,000 again from September onward.
Meanwhile, a new likely floor level has appeared this year: $69,000, as Cointelegraph reported, which has a “95% chance” of holding.
Continuing, Peterson stipulated a median target of $126,000 with a deadline of June 1.
Alongside a chart showing the performance of $100 in BTC, he also revealed that limp bull market performance has always been temporary.
“Bitcoin average time below trend = 4 months,” he explained.
“The red dotted trend line = $126,000 on June 1.”
A standard Bitcoin bull market comedown
Other popular market commentators continue to emphasize that Bitcoin’s recent trip to $76,000 is standard corrective behaviour.
“You don’t have to look at the previous BTC bull runs to understand that corrections are a part of the cycle,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in part of X analysis of the phenomenon at the start of March.
Rekt Capital counted five of what he called “major pullbacks” in the current cycle alone, going back to the start of 2023.
Analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex told Cointelegraph this weekend that the current lows mark a “shakeout,” rather than the end of the current cycle.
Source: Cointelegraph
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