Twice as many Canadians are staying away from the U.S. than the national travel industry predicted—setting up a potential $4 billion economic loss this year.
Last month, the number of Canadians taking road trips into the U.S.—representing the majority of Canadians who visit—dropped by 23% compared to February 2024, according to data released Monday from Statistics Canada, while Canadian air travel to the U.S. was down by 2.4% over the same period.
The U.S. Travel Association (USTA) warned last month that even a 10% reduction in Canadian inbound travel could translate to $2.1 billion in lost spending and 140,000 jobs jeopardized in the hospitality and related sectors.
Using the USTA’s metrics, a sustained decline of more than 20% in Canadian visitors would translate to more than $4 billion in losses to the U.S. economy in 2025.
Flight Centre, Canada’s largest travel agency, told Forbes it saw a 40% decrease in leisure bookings in February compared to the same month last year, and a 20% cancellation rate on pre-booked trips to the U.S. over the past three months.
The USTA has forecasted 21.5 million Canadian visitors to the U.S. in 2025—a 5% increase over last year.
Given the boycott, such an increase would be “almost impossible,” Laurie Trautman, director of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University, told Forbes.
Neither the USTA nor the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office nor Brand USA responded to Forbes’ queries on whether 2025 projections for Canadian visitations would be adjusted downward.
Key Background
After President Donald Trump issued executive orders on Feb. 1 to levy 25% tariffs on products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico, outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to reconsider visiting the U.S. and travel domestically instead. Canadian visitors comprise the single largest cohort of foreign inbound tourists to the U.S., having spent $20.5 billion in 2024—the biggest economic impact of any single country—according to the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office.
What To Watch For
Many industry experts expect the travel boycott will have long-term economic repercussions, especially in U.S. border towns that rely heavily on cross-border traffic. “Clearly all indications in terms of travel from Canada point to not just a small decline, but a considerable decline—and there’s very little reason to think that that will reverse anytime soon,” Trautman told Forbes, adding that hotel demand in northwest Washington is down by 12% over the past 28 days.
Crucial Quote
“Canadians are still eager to travel but have shifted behaviour and now plan to explore locations outside of the U.S.,” said Amra Durakovic, head of communications for Flight Centre Travel Group Canada.
Tangent
Mexico, also targeted by Trump’s 25% tariffs, is the second biggest source of inbound tourism to the U.S. after Canada. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ordered retaliatory tariffs in response to the U.S. tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico, but so far has not specifically called for Mexican travellers to boycott the U.S. The USTA has projected an 18% increase in Mexican visitors in 2025 compared to 2024.
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