Super Tuesday: Trump all but certain of Republican nomination as 16 states vote

Primary contests represent last chance for Nikki Haley to deny Trump, while Biden glides towards being Democratic nominee

Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican nomination for president is all but certain to be confirmed on Tuesday, as 16 US states and one territory hold primary votes. From Alabama to Alaska and from Arkansas to American Samoa, “Super Tuesday” represents Nikki Haley’s last chance to deny Trump a third nomination.

But the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador is way off the pace, her only win in Washington DC, and in need of a political miracle if she is not to be forced to finally end her campaign.

Furthermore, the US supreme court on Monday ruled unanimously that judges in one Super Tuesday state, Colorado, erred when they said Trump should be kept off the ballot for inciting the January 6 insurrection. Maine, which will also vote on Tuesday, also attempted to stop Trump running. The third state to do so, Illinois, will hold its primary later in March.

On the Democratic side of the Super Tuesday ballot, Joe Biden is all but sure to defeat his also-ran challengers, the Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, a self-help author who last week “un-suspended” her campaign.

Amid deepening concern about the president’s age and fitness for office, as well as his record on the Israel-Hamas war, aides to Biden will be chiefly concerned with turnout and protest vote totals.

The Democratic Socialists of America, a force with young progressives, has endorsed a push for Super Tuesday voters to choose “uncommitted”, to register disapproval for US support for Israel. In Michigan last week, more than 100,000 did so.

Still, Frank Luntz, a Republican-aligned pollster, previously told the Guardian that in terms of a presidential election, Super Tuesday “never mattered less” than this year.

“I don’t know any political event that’s got more attention for being less relevant,” Luntz said. “The decision has been made. The choice is clear.”

Polling shows clear majorities of voters in both parties dissatisfied with the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch, amid concerns over their ages (Biden is 81, Trump 77) and fitness for office, in Trump’s case also over his 91 criminal charges (for election subversion, retention of classified information and hush-money payments) and multimillion-dollar civil defeats.

“You know who the two nominees are and 70% of Americans would rather it not be so,” Luntz said.

There are also down-ballot contests to watch.

In California, in an open primary, voters will decide which two candidates for US Senate will advance to the November general election. Adam Schiff, a Democratic former chair of the House intelligence committee, and Steve Garvey, a Republican former baseball star, lead a crowded field.

In Texas, a Republican-run state forever the subject of Democratic hopes and dreams, Democrats will choose a candidate to challenge the high-profile, hard-right, Trump-supporting senator Ted Cruz. Colin Allred, a congressman and former NFL player, leads polling.

In North Carolina, the Democratic attorney general, Josh Stein, and Republican lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, are expected to advance to an election for governor in November. That race will decide who succeeds Roy Cooper, a term-limited Democrat, in what is increasingly a swing state, vital to presidential elections and control of Congress.

Robinson, a rare Black Republican in elected office, has attracted widespread criticism for harsh rightwing rhetoric. At a rally last week, Trump called him “Martin Luther King on steroids”.