African stock markets are expected to open mixed but with a cautiously positive undertone on Monday. Improved sentiment on Wall Street and hopes of de-escalation between the United States and Iran could encourage selective buying, although weaker commodity prices and domestic economic concerns may limit the advance.
Johannesburg looks for direction
South Africa’s Johannesburg Stock Exchange ended Friday slightly lower, with the main market index declining approximately 0.34%. The market nevertheless remained 1.72% higher over the month and more than 14% above its level a year earlier.
The rand weakened despite a stronger-than-expected South African trade surplus, trading at approximately 16.59 against the US dollar on Friday. This demonstrated that international risk sentiment and expectations for American interest rates continued to outweigh favourable domestic statistics.
Johannesburg could open slightly higher if the global improvement continues. Financial, retail and industrial shares may benefit from reduced geopolitical anxiety, while mining companies could struggle if investors continue reducing exposure to gold and other defensive assets.
Oil produces conflicting signals
President Donald Trump’s decision to halt planned attacks on Iran has created hope that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and international energy supplies may ease. This should benefit African countries that depend heavily on imported fuel, including South Africa and Kenya.
The consequences are less favourable for oil exporters. Nigerian energy companies and government finances have benefited from elevated crude prices, meaning a substantial decline in oil could remove part of that support.
Nigeria’s NGX All-Share Index ended Friday almost unchanged, slipping 0.03% to 245,283.68. The restrained close suggests Lagos may begin Monday cautiously as investors balance possible global gains against the risk of weaker oil revenue.
Cairo and Nairobi may diverge
Egypt’s EGX 30 finished its latest session 0.91% lower at 53,442.20, while Kenya’s broad market index advanced 1.88% to 237.86. Cairo may receive support from lower international energy prices because Egypt remains vulnerable to imported inflation and foreign-currency pressures.
Nairobi could also benefit from cheaper fuel, although food prices, currency conditions and concern about a powerful El Niño remain important risks for East African economies.
Economic indicators enter focus
South Africa’s ABSA Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched on Monday after previously standing at 47.3, below the level associated with expanding industrial activity. An improvement towards 50 could strengthen the rand and support domestically focused shares.
Investors will also monitor international manufacturing surveys and US bond yields. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later in 2026 remain a potential obstacle for emerging markets because higher American yields can attract capital away from African currencies and equities.
The most likely outcome is therefore a mixed opening: cautious gains in Johannesburg and Nairobi, possible stabilisation in Cairo and a more restrained performance in Lagos. The direction of oil and the US dollar will remain decisive throughout the session.
Newshub Editorial in Africa – 2 August 2026
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