The world is almost certain to endure another record hot year before 2030, according to new United Nations climate projections that point to accelerating global temperature risks. The World Meteorological Organization says there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, with 2027 emerging as a possible record-breaker if El Niño develops as expected.
A narrowing climate window
The warning was issued in a WMO report prepared with the UK Met Office. It forecasts that global near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will remain close to record levels, with each year projected to be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
The 1.5°C threshold
The report also estimates a 75% chance that the five-year average temperature for 2026–2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists stress that a temporary breach does not mean the Paris Agreement has formally failed, because the target is measured over a longer period. However, repeated breaches show how close the world is moving to a more dangerous climate zone.
El Niño adds pressure
El Niño, a natural warming pattern in the Pacific, is expected later this year and could push global temperatures higher in 2027. Combined with human-driven greenhouse gas emissions, it may amplify heatwaves, droughts, floods and food-system stress across several regions.
Arctic and Amazon risks
The Arctic is expected to warm far faster than the global average, accelerating sea-ice loss and changing weather patterns. The Amazon, meanwhile, faces a higher risk of dry conditions, which could increase wildfire danger and weaken one of the planet’s most important carbon sinks.
What it means
The UN warning is not only about temperature records. It is about economic risk, food prices, insurance costs, migration pressure and public health. Every additional fraction of a degree increases the probability of extreme weather. The message is clear: the world is not facing a distant climate threat, but a fast-moving financial, social and environmental risk already reshaping the decade ahead.
Newshub Editorial in Global – 28 May 2026
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