Vietnam’s economy is forecast to remain one of ASEAN’s strongest performers in 2026, even as global trade uncertainty, energy risks and weaker external demand weigh on the region. The World Bank’s latest Vietnam Economic Update projects growth of 6.8% this year, following an 8% expansion in 2025.
Growth remains resilient
The forecast points to moderation rather than weakness. Vietnam is expected to keep expanding at a pace well above many regional peers, supported by public investment, private-sector activity, consumption and its continued role as a competitive manufacturing base.
Reforms matter
The World Bank says sustained reforms are needed to navigate uncertainty. Priorities include capital market development, stronger domestic firms, modernised tax and customs systems, and better corporate insolvency rules.
Global risks
Vietnam remains highly exposed to external demand because of its trade openness. The Middle East oil shock, elevated energy prices and slower global trade could affect exports, production costs and domestic activity. Inflation is projected to average just over 4% in 2026.
Investment support
A large public infrastructure investment plan and relatively low public debt give Vietnam room to support growth. The World Bank notes that public debt stood at only 34% of GDP in 2025, creating fiscal space to absorb shocks and maintain investment.
ASEAN bright spot
Vietnam’s medium-term outlook remains anchored by supply-chain diversification, infrastructure delivery and reform momentum. If reforms are implemented effectively, the country could strengthen productivity, deepen capital markets and avoid the risks of slower middle-income growth.
Newshub Editorial in Asia – 25 May 2026
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