New data shows governments are preparing to expand coal, gas and oil extraction in the coming decades at levels exceeding previous forecasts, casting serious doubt on the world’s ability to meet international climate targets. The findings suggest that instead of reducing fossil fuel reliance, production pathways are moving further away from the Paris Agreement’s objectives.
Production plans surpass earlier estimates
According to updated research, national strategies for fossil fuel extraction have become more ambitious compared with 2023 projections. Governments are planning greater output of oil, gas and coal despite repeated warnings from scientists and international agencies that existing reserves already exceed safe carbon limits. The increase indicates a widening gap between policy commitments on emissions reduction and the realities of planned production.
Climate goals under mounting pressure
The Paris Agreement’s central target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C requires a rapid decline in fossil fuel use. Yet current extraction strategies suggest the opposite trajectory, with coal remaining entrenched in several Asian economies, gas expansion continuing in both developed and developing nations, and oil production growth driven by key exporters. Analysts warn that such trends, if realised, will make the 1.5°C pathway effectively unattainable.
Economic and political drivers
Many governments justify the expansion plans as necessary for energy security, economic growth, and employment. Resource-rich countries argue that global demand will remain strong, particularly in emerging markets, and that domestic extraction reduces reliance on imports. However, critics note that this approach risks creating stranded assets and undermining investment in renewable energy, further delaying the transition to a low-carbon economy.
International response and accountability
The new data is likely to intensify calls for greater accountability at upcoming climate summits. While many nations have set ambitious net-zero targets, the contradiction between long-term pledges and short-term extraction plans remains stark. International bodies, including the UN and the International Energy Agency, have repeatedly stressed that new fossil fuel projects are incompatible with climate objectives, urging governments to align energy strategies with scientific guidance.
Implications for global climate policy
If current plans are implemented, experts warn that global emissions will lock in decades of high-carbon infrastructure, undermining efforts to scale up renewable energy and efficiency. The findings underline the urgency of stronger policy action, international cooperation, and financial support for clean energy deployment in developing economies. Without decisive shifts, climate goals risk moving permanently beyond reach.
Newshub Editorial in Global – 24 September 2025
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