Jamaica’s economy is showing steady growth, supported by a stable macroeconomic environment, strong reserves, and positive assessments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Officials remain cautiously optimistic about prospects for 2025–26, although global uncertainties continue to pose risks.
growth momentum holds steady
The Planning Institute of Jamaica reported that the economy expanded by an estimated 1.4% in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year. The Bank of Jamaica projects overall GDP growth of between 1.0% and 3.0% for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Key sectors driving this performance include agriculture, mining, and tourism, with each showing resilience despite external headwinds.
inflation remains contained
Consumer price pressures have eased in recent months. Headline inflation stood at 3.3% in July 2025, while core inflation, excluding volatile agricultural and fuel prices, was recorded at 4.3%. Both figures mark a decline compared to the previous year. This stability has allowed the Bank of Jamaica to maintain a cautious monetary stance while keeping price growth within manageable limits.
reserves strengthen stability
Jamaica’s gross international reserves stood at US$6.2 billion in mid-2025, equivalent to roughly 148% of the internationally recognised adequate reserve threshold. This strong reserve position provides a significant buffer against external shocks and currency volatility, underpinning investor confidence and ensuring space for the central bank to respond to global market disruptions if necessary.
imf endorsement reinforces confidence
The IMF concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation with Jamaica in June, commending the country for a decade of consistent macroeconomic management. The Fund highlighted progress in institutional reforms, fiscal discipline, and investments in resilience. This endorsement reinforces Jamaica’s standing with international investors and donors, providing credibility for continued reform efforts and attracting external financing.
external risks persist
Despite the broadly positive outlook, challenges remain. The Bank of Jamaica has warned that shifts in United States trade and immigration policy could influence growth prospects and inflationary pressures. Jamaica’s dependence on tourism and remittances from the US market leaves the economy exposed to external changes. Maintaining fiscal discipline while diversifying economic drivers will be critical.
outlook for 2025–26
With inflation contained, reserves at robust levels, and IMF backing secured, Jamaica appears well positioned for continued expansion. The emphasis on agriculture, tourism, and mining provides a balanced growth profile, though policymakers must remain vigilant in the face of external volatility. For now, the country’s economic trajectory remains steady, underpinned by reforms and strengthened institutional frameworks.
REFH – Newshub, 3 September 2025
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