Ukraine is stepping up work with NATO allies on long-term security guarantees amid stalled negotiations with Russia and continued threats of escalation.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff, Andriy Yermak, confirmed this week that officials are developing the “military component” of Ukraine’s future security framework. The plans are designed to ensure that Western support is sustained should the current war grind on or expand further. Yermak stressed that preparations were not merely theoretical but involved structured commitments from partner nations to safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Frozen diplomacy
The renewed focus on defence planning comes against a backdrop of faltering diplomacy. Moscow has dismissed proposals for an imminent summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with Russian officials insisting that the agenda remains “not ready at all.” Central points of contention remain unchanged: the future of Donbas, the status of Crimea, and Ukraine’s relationship with NATO.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia’s opposition to talks that would, in Moscow’s view, bypass what it calls “fundamental realities on the ground.” For Kyiv and its allies, such rhetoric confirms fears that Russia sees little incentive to compromise while battlefield dynamics remain in its favour.
Pressure from Washington
In Washington, President Donald Trump has again threatened a punitive response should progress on peace talks fail to materialise. Speaking on Friday, Trump said the United States would impose “massive sanctions or tariffs” on Russia within weeks unless negotiations advanced. The warning underlines growing frustration in Washington at the absence of tangible diplomatic movement, and signals that economic coercion remains central to US policy.
However, analysts caution that fresh sanctions may not be decisive. Russia has weathered multiple rounds of Western economic measures since 2022, aided by trade with non-aligned states and elevated energy revenues. Critics argue that without coordinated enforcement and clear diplomatic incentives, further sanctions may reinforce Moscow’s siege mentality rather than drive compromise.
Security guarantees under development
For Kyiv, the focus now lies in ensuring that military support does not diminish. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Ukraine this week to underline the alliance’s long-term commitment. Discussions centred on formalising aid packages, ensuring predictable flows of weaponry, and exploring joint training structures that would integrate Ukrainian forces more closely with NATO standards.
Western officials suggest that one model under consideration is a series of bilateral defence agreements that, taken together, would approximate a collective security guarantee without full NATO membership. Such an arrangement would aim to deter further Russian aggression while sidestepping the alliance’s formal expansion.
What comes next
The coming fortnight will test the credibility of Washington’s sanctions threat and the pace of NATO’s planning. Ukraine is expected to present a draft of its security guarantee framework in September, setting the stage for potentially wider endorsement at the next NATO defence ministers’ meeting.
With the diplomatic track at an impasse and Moscow showing no sign of retreat, Kyiv and its allies appear to be preparing for a protracted struggle. The emphasis on formalised defence commitments signals a recognition that security may need to be guaranteed through deterrence rather than negotiation in the months ahead.
REFH – Newshub, 23 August 2025
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