The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned there is a 70% chance that the global average temperature between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, signalling a critical threshold in climate change. The forecast underscores mounting challenges in limiting warming despite international efforts.
A significant climate milestone looms
The 1.5C target, set by the Paris Agreement, is widely regarded as a crucial limit to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. The WMO’s latest prediction, based on climate models and recent data, indicates that the average temperature over the coming five years is likely to exceed this level, if only temporarily. This represents one of the earliest windows in which such a milestone is expected to be reached.
Rising greenhouse gas concentrations drive warming
The agency attributes the warming trend to continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide and methane. Despite some progress in reducing emissions in certain regions, global output remains insufficient to halt the upward trajectory. Natural variability factors, such as El Niño events, may also amplify temperature increases during the forecast period.
Implications for extreme weather and ecosystems
Exceeding 1.5C warming even briefly can exacerbate extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and intense storms. It also poses grave risks to vulnerable ecosystems, accelerating sea-level rise and threatening biodiversity. Scientists emphasise that temporary overshoots must be followed by rapid emission reductions to avoid long-term damage.
Calls for urgent and sustained action
Climate experts and activists have urged governments to intensify mitigation efforts ahead of the COP30 summit later this year. The WMO’s forecast serves as a stark reminder of the narrowing window to implement effective policies and transition to low-carbon economies.
Ongoing monitoring and research
The WMO will continue to update its temperature predictions as new data becomes available, providing critical information to policymakers, scientists, and the public. The period 2025–2029 is thus seen as a critical test of global climate ambitions and resilience.
REFH – Newshub, 9 August 2025
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