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Asian markets rise cautiously as Fed rate hopes offset tariff fears

Asian stock markets opened mixed on Tuesday, with investor sentiment lifted by growing hopes of a US interest rate cut but tempered by renewed trade tensions and political uncertainty.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose around 0.7% in early trading, buoyed by a rebound on Wall Street and easing yen strength. South Korea’s Kospi climbed over 1%, as tech and energy shares led gains following signs that the Federal Reserve may move closer to cutting rates after weaker-than-expected US jobs data.

In China, the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.5%, driven by services-sector optimism and Beijing’s continued pledge to support domestic demand. However, gains were capped by persistent concerns over export tariffs and a sluggish property sector recovery.

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Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index saw a more subdued rise of 0.3%, with financials and consumer stocks showing moderate strength. While recent data pointed to stabilisation in parts of the Chinese economy, foreign investor confidence remains fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

India’s Sensex opened lower, down about 0.4%, after former President Donald Trump threatened fresh tariffs on Indian goods. The move, aimed at countering what he described as “unfair trade practices”, spooked local investors and added pressure to an already volatile session. The NSE Nifty followed suit, slipping into negative territory despite resilience in banking stocks.

The regional uptick comes as global investors recalibrate expectations for US monetary policy. Following soft labour market numbers, futures markets now price in a strong likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. This has weakened the dollar slightly and lifted risk appetite across Asia-Pacific markets.

Despite today’s upward momentum, analysts warned that the rally may prove fragile. “There is clear optimism over US rates, but any escalation in tariffs—especially affecting India and Southeast Asia—could swiftly undermine sentiment,” said one strategist at a Tokyo-based brokerage.

Key sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, and industrials were among the strongest performers in Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, commodity-linked shares also saw support as oil prices steadied after last week’s volatility.

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming central bank decisions in India and Australia, along with earnings reports from major Chinese firms. Any shift in tone from policymakers or signs of corporate weakness could dictate the market’s next move.

With central banks, trade politics, and inflation data all in flux, today’s mixed open across Asian markets reflects a cautiously optimistic but still nervous investor environment.

REFH – Newshub, 5 August 2025

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