UK households could face food price increases of over 30% by mid-century due to climate-related shocks, according to a new report warning of the long-term inflationary effects of global warming on agriculture. The study, commissioned by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), highlights how rising temperatures, extreme weather and global supply chain disruption are set to reshape the cost of living in the coming decades.
Climate risks to food production
The report finds that increasing climate instability is likely to cause more frequent harvest failures across key producing regions such as southern Europe, North America and parts of Asia. Crops vulnerable to heatwaves, droughts and floods — including wheat, maize, fruit and vegetables — are expected to face significant yield losses.
For the UK, which imports nearly half of its food, these global supply disruptions would be directly felt in supermarkets. Domestically, climate change is also projected to reduce agricultural productivity, particularly for livestock and fresh produce, further exposing the country to price volatility.
From cost of living to cost of climate
The report coins the term ‘climateflation’ to describe the growing link between environmental stress and long-term price inflation. It estimates that, by 2050, UK food prices could be 35% higher than they would be without the impact of climate change. Even under scenarios where emissions are cut sharply, prices are still expected to rise by at least 15% due to existing global warming already baked into the climate system.
The authors argue that rising food costs driven by climate instability will disproportionately affect lower-income households, where groceries account for a larger share of monthly spending. They warn that without adaptation measures, the UK risks greater food insecurity and increased pressure on social support systems.
Calls for climate resilience in farming
In response to the findings, climate campaigners and farming groups are calling for a more coordinated national strategy to future-proof the UK’s food system. Measures proposed include expanding domestic crop diversity, investing in drought-resistant technologies, improving soil health, and reducing reliance on imports from vulnerable regions.
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) noted that British farmers are already adapting to shifting weather patterns, but urged more government support to accelerate resilience and reduce emissions across the agricultural sector.
A policy challenge for the next government
With a general election expected within the next year, the report adds urgency to the debate over food and energy security. It suggests that climate adaptation must become a core part of the UK’s economic and welfare planning, not just an environmental concern.
While food prices have stabilised in recent months following the pandemic and the energy crisis, long-term risks remain under-addressed in national policy. Experts warn that unless action is taken, climateflation could entrench inequality and reshape consumer behaviour over the coming decades.
REFH – Newshub, 28 July 2025
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