French President Emmanuel Macron has issued a stark warning against any external attempts to force regime change in Iran, amid rising tensions following Israeli military strikes and increasing instability in the region. Speaking at a closed-door session of the National Defence and Armed Forces Committee in Paris, Macron stressed the risks of strategic miscalculation and unintended consequences should efforts intensify to topple the Islamic Republic’s leadership.
According to senior officials present at the briefing, Macron expressed concern that escalating covert operations, cyberattacks and military pressure by Western allies and Israel may lead to chaos rather than democratic reform. He warned that a sudden collapse of Iran’s current power structure could trigger regional spillover, empower radical elements, and provoke a wave of refugee movements across Europe’s eastern and Mediterranean borders.
The remarks follow recent reports that Israeli strikes under Operation Rising Lion have begun targeting not only Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but also its police networks, economic assets and state-controlled media. Meanwhile, US intelligence assessments reportedly suggest a growing internal rift within Iran’s ruling establishment, though the regime retains tight control over the security apparatus and communications.
Macron’s warning echoes France’s longstanding preference for diplomacy over confrontation in the Middle East. Since taking office, he has pursued dialogue with Tehran—even at moments when Washington adopted a more hardline approach under the Trump and Biden administrations. France was a key player in the original 2015 Iran nuclear deal and has repeatedly advocated for its revival despite current setbacks.
Within European circles, there is growing discomfort with recent signs that regime change may be re-entering the Western strategic vocabulary. Some analysts worry that the lessons of Iraq and Libya—where foreign-led interventions resulted in long-term instability—are being forgotten in the face of Iran’s authoritarian posture and expanding regional influence.
French officials also fear that regime collapse in Tehran could ignite power struggles between Iran’s military factions, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the traditional clerical hierarchy. Such a scenario, they argue, could lead to internal fragmentation, the rise of warlordism, and widespread repression in the name of restoring order.
Furthermore, Macron has reportedly instructed French intelligence services to assess the risks to European nationals and economic interests in case Iran enters a period of political upheaval. Energy prices, migration patterns and regional military entanglements all figure prominently in these assessments.
In private briefings to EU allies, Macron is said to have urged a united European position that supports reform in Iran through civil society engagement, economic incentives, and targeted sanctions, rather than military provocation. He has also warned that any missteps could strengthen hardliners and derail fragile movements for political openness within Iran itself.
As the Middle East braces for a potentially volatile summer, Macron’s position reflects both strategic caution and the limits of Western influence. With Iran deeply embedded in the region’s political and security landscape, any rapid disruption to its leadership structure is likely to affect not only its neighbours but also Europe and beyond.
France’s message, it seems, is simple: stability may be imperfect, but collapse could be far worse.
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