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Uncertainty’s price tag: The economic fallout of Trump’s tariffs

2025/06/01/07:17
in Financial insights
Reading Time: 5 mins read
247 8
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Trump’s sweeping import tariffs amp up global trade war, 20% on EU
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The presidency of Donald Trump significantly altered global trade, primarily through the widespread imposition of tariffs. Driven by an “America First” agenda and a desire to shrink trade deficits, these duties, particularly against China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, ignited a period of intense uncertainty and retaliatory measures that resonated across international markets and economies. While the full long-term ramifications are still unfolding, historical data from their active implementation reveal a complex and often costly impact.


The genesis of the trade disputes

The Trump administration’s tariff strategy was broad, targeting various goods and trading partners. Key actions included the 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminium in March 2018, citing national security concerns. More extensively, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 was leveraged against China from July 2018, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of pounds worth of Chinese goods due to alleged unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. Beijing consistently retaliated with its own duties on American products, especially agricultural goods. Later, broader “reciprocal” tariffs were also mooted, adding further instability.


Impact on global markets: Volatility and disruption

The tariff policies immediately ushered in increased volatility and uncertainty across global financial markets. Announcements of new tariffs and subsequent retaliations frequently triggered market sell-offs and heightened investor anxiety. Stock markets fluctuated, and currency valuations were affected, with the US dollar often strengthening as a safe haven, whilst currencies of heavily impacted nations, such as China’s yuan, depreciated. Key commodities, notably American agricultural products like soybeans, suffered as China shifted its purchases elsewhere, leading to price drops and calls for government support for affected farmers. Businesses worldwide faced rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and the urgent need to re-evaluate sourcing, making long-term planning difficult.


Economic costs and consequences

Whilst tariffs did generate some revenue for the US Treasury, this was often overshadowed by broader economic harm. The costs of these import taxes were largely absorbed by American importers, which were then passed on to consumers through higher prices for goods. Businesses also contended with increased expenses for imported raw materials, eroding profit margins or necessitating price increases.

Studies from various organisations indicated that the tariffs would reduce US GDP and lead to job losses, with further negative impacts expected from foreign retaliation. Export-oriented US industries, particularly agriculture, were severely hit by retaliatory duties from trading partners, resulting in diminished sales and market share. The unpredictable nature of the tariff policies also discouraged both domestic and foreign investment, as businesses hesitated to commit to new projects amid shifting international trade rules. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) repeatedly warned that escalating trade tensions would significantly slow global merchandise trade growth.


The WTO’s position and outlook

The WTO frequently found the Trump administration’s tariffs, particularly those imposed under Section 301, to be inconsistent with global trade rules. Numerous countries filed disputes, with the WTO’s dispute settlement body often ruling against the US. However, the Trump administration’s scepticism towards the WTO challenged the multilateral trading system itself.

While the immediate “chaos” of the tariff wars during the Trump administration has now subsided, their legacy continues to influence global trade discussions. The experience underscored the intricate interconnectedness of the global economy and the far-reaching consequences of unilateral trade actions. The debate over the effectiveness and long-term costs of tariffs remains a central theme in international economic policy, highlighting the delicate balance required for stable and predictable global trade relations.


The genesis of the trade disputes

The Trump administration’s tariff strategy was broad, targeting various goods and trading partners. Key actions included the 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminium in March 2018, citing national security concerns. More extensively, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 was leveraged against China from July 2018, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of pounds worth of Chinese goods due to alleged unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. Beijing consistently retaliated with its own duties on American products, especially agricultural goods. Later, broader “reciprocal” tariffs were also mooted, adding further instability.


Impact on global markets: Volatility and disruption

The tariff policies immediately ushered in increased volatility and uncertainty across global financial markets. Announcements of new tariffs and subsequent retaliations frequently triggered market sell-offs and heightened investor anxiety. Stock markets fluctuated, and currency valuations were affected, with the US dollar often strengthening as a safe haven, whilst currencies of heavily impacted nations, such as China’s yuan, depreciated. Key commodities, notably American agricultural products like soybeans, suffered as China shifted its purchases elsewhere, leading to price drops and calls for government support for affected farmers. Businesses worldwide faced rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and the urgent need to re-evaluate sourcing, making long-term planning difficult.


Economic costs and consequences

Whilst tariffs did generate some revenue for the US Treasury, this was often overshadowed by broader economic harm. The costs of these import taxes were largely absorbed by American importers, which were then passed on to consumers through higher prices for goods. Businesses also contended with increased expenses for imported raw materials, eroding profit margins or necessitating price increases.

Studies from various organisations indicated that the tariffs would reduce US GDP and lead to job losses, with further negative impacts expected from foreign retaliation. Export-oriented US industries, particularly agriculture, were severely hit by retaliatory duties from trading partners, resulting in diminished sales and market share. The unpredictable nature of the tariff policies also discouraged both domestic and foreign investment, as businesses hesitated to commit to new projects amid shifting international trade rules. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) repeatedly warned that escalating trade tensions would significantly slow global merchandise trade growth.


The WTO’s position and outlook

The WTO frequently found the Trump administration’s tariffs, particularly those imposed under Section 301, to be inconsistent with global trade rules. Numerous countries filed disputes, with the WTO’s dispute settlement body often ruling against the US. However, the Trump administration’s scepticism towards the WTO challenged the multilateral trading system itself.

While the immediate “chaos” of the tariff wars during the Trump administration has now subsided, their legacy continues to influence global trade discussions. The experience underscored the intricate interconnectedness of the global economy and the far-reaching consequences of unilateral trade actions. The debate over the effectiveness and long-term costs of tariffs remains a central theme in international economic policy, highlighting the delicate balance required for stable and predictable global trade relations.

newshub finance

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