Poland is currently in the midst of a crucial presidential election, with the country having already conducted the first round of voting on May 18. As expected by many political commentators, no candidate secured the outright majority required for a first-round victory, thus necessitating a second-round run-off scheduled for June 1. This election is not merely about choosing a new head of state; it is poised to significantly shape Poland’s political trajectory, particularly concerning its relationship with the European Union and the domestic reform agenda.
The two contenders who emerged from the first round are Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and candidate for the Civic Platform, the leading party in the current governing Civic Coalition, and Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate strongly backed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. Trzaskowski garnered approximately 31.4 per cent of the vote, narrowly leading Nawrocki, who secured around 29.5 per cent. The polls suggest a tight race for the second round, with little separating the two candidates.
The stakes are exceptionally high. For the incumbent government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a victory for Trzaskowski is paramount. President Andrzej Duda, affiliated with PiS, has consistently used his presidential veto to obstruct reforms aimed at restoring the rule of law and judicial independence, which were key promises of Tusk’s coalition. A Trzaskowski presidency would remove this significant legislative hurdle, allowing the government to push through its agenda more smoothly and further align Poland with EU democratic norms. This outcome would likely lead to a more cooperative relationship with Brussels and potentially unlock significant EU funds.
Conversely, a win for Karol Nawrocki would signal continued political gridlock. Nawrocki is seen as a more conservative figure than the outgoing President Duda and is expected to maintain a confrontational stance towards the government’s reform efforts. His victory would likely mean a prolonged period of legislative battles, with presidential vetoes continuing to hinder the government’s ability to implement its policies. This scenario could further strain Poland’s relations with the European Union, potentially leading to renewed tensions over issues such as the rule of law, migration, and social policies. Some analysts even suggest a Nawrocki presidency could steer Poland towards a more ‘mini-Trump’ foreign policy, prioritising bilateral relations with Washington over EU unity.
Beyond the two main contenders, the first round also saw notable support for Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Confederation party, who secured a significant 14.8 per cent of the vote. His voters, predominantly younger and male, could prove crucial in the second round, as both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki vie for their support. The election has also highlighted a growing sentiment among Polish voters for alternatives to the two dominant parties, PiS and Civic Platform, which have largely shaped Polish politics for the past two decades.
Key issues dominating the campaign include the future of Poland’s judiciary, abortion rights, economic concerns such as housing costs and taxes, and the country’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. While Trzaskowski has generally advocated for stronger ties with the EU and previously hinted at liberalising abortion laws, Nawrocki’s campaign has focused on conservative values and national interests, often echoing PiS’s scepticism towards certain EU policies.
As Poland heads into the final round of voting, the outcome remains uncertain. The election will undoubtedly determine not only the direction of the presidency but also the effectiveness of the current government and Poland’s overall position on the European and global stage.
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