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Russia could reinvade Ukraine without US security guarantees, Starmer warns

2025/02/27/07:23
in Ukraine
Reading Time: 5 mins read
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Russia could reinvade Ukraine without US security guarantees, Starmer warns

UK prime minister faces major diplomatic effort to get president on board after he said no plans for US ‘backstop’

Keir Starmer has warned that Vladimir Putin could invade Ukraine again unless the US provides security guarantees as he arrived for critical talks with Donald Trump at the most precarious moment for European stability in decades.

With the future of Ukrainian security hanging in the balance, he urged the president to commit a US backstop to a British and French-led peacekeeping force, saying it was the only way to avoid Russia plunging Europe back into war.

However, the prime minister faces a major diplomatic effort to get the US on board after Trump told his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday that he had no plans to provide security guarantees for Ukraine, adding: “We’re going to have Europe do that.”

After a frenetic week of international diplomacy, Starmer arrived in Washington for the biggest test yet as he tries to balance the UK’s security and economic interests with retaining good relations with the unpredictable president.

The visit comes just two days after Emmanuel Macron, the French president, warned Trump against a “surrender” of Ukraine, and 24 hours before Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives at the White House. Both leaders are expected at a defence summit in London on Sunday.

But hanging over Starmer’s talks with Trump will be pressure to extract a security backstop. The prime minister is expected to spell out that any British boots on the ground would be contingent on the US providing support including air, logistics and communications.

“The security guarantee has to be sufficient to deter Putin from coming again because my concern is if there is a ceasefire without a backstop, it will simply give him the opportunity to wait and to come again because his ambition in relation to Ukraine is pretty obvious for all to see,” he said on the flight to Washington.

The decision to commit British troops to any peace-keeping force, which could put them on the frontline of a conflict with Russia, was “not taken lightly”, he said. “It’s a considered decision. We are still in discussions as to what that might look like.”

Ahead of his own visit to Washington, President Zelenskyy confirmed that a deal to share some of Ukraine’s mineral wealth with the US had been agreed, although he added the initial agreement was more of a framework and that he also still needed American security guarantees.

However, the US president appeared to immediately reject demands for a backstop. “I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much. We’re going to have Europe do that because we’re talking about Europe as the next-door neighbour,” he said.

“But we’re going to make sure everything goes well. As you know, we’ll be really partnering with Ukraine in terms of rare earth. We very much need rare earth. They have great rare earth.”

UK officials played down expectations of a breakthrough on the issue during the White House talks, stressing that this was just the beginning of a process with very little already agreed and talks set to continue for weeks.

“When there’s a Trump presidency the rhetoric is always very destabilising, but if you zoom out you can see what’s going on. The president has been very clear he wants to end the war. We just need to focus on how,” one said.

In recent weeks, Trump has upended the transatlantic alliance and the Western consensus on Ukraine, alarming European nations by aligning the US with Moscow including at the United Nations. Yet Starmer is going into the talks with a clear message that Putin is the aggressor after the US president falsely claimed Ukraine had started the war.

“There’s one aggressor here and that’s Russia, in clear breach of the UN charter. Russia can end this conflict tomorrow by withdrawing and stopping their aggression,” Starmer told the Guardian.

“All the discussion that follows about talks, about security guarantees, has to be seen in that context. They are the aggressor. They have invaded and occupied a sovereign country in Europe, and they bear full responsibility for the conflict.”

However, despite some of Trump’s more far-fetched claims over Ukraine, Starmer said there was “no issue” between them on the approach to Putin. “Of course, the president has been very clear about the peace that he wants. He’s right about that. We all want peace. The question is, how do we make sure it’s a lasting peace? There’s no issue between us on this.” He was certain the US president could be trusted, he added.

In a surprise speech on Tuesday, Starmer announced the biggest increase in UK defence spending since the end of the cold war. The budget will rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 – three years earlier than planned – and with the ambition to reach 3%, paid for by cutting aid spending, a decision that has dismayed many Labour MPs.

The prime minister, asked whether he could reassure the British people over the prospect of further conflict, said the government was taking the “necessary measures” to keep the country safe. “Because Putin has already caused insecurity in our country, in our waters, and air, in cyberspace,” he added.

Starmer will be accompanied at the White House by David Lammy, the foreign secretary, Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser, and Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff. The new UK ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, is also likely to be there.

He is expected to urge Trump not to impose damaging trade tariffs on the UK, arguing that the two countries have balanced trade, which means Britain should be spared.

“We’ve got a balanced book as it were, when it comes to trade,” he said. “We’ve got strong trade, millions and millions of pounds either way with the US. It’s pretty balanced in terms of surplus and deficit, and obviously I will act in our best economic interests.”

He was expected to meet US business leaders who are investing in the UK on Wednesday, in an attempt to strengthen the bilateral trading relationship which is already worth about $400bn (£315bn).

The deal for the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands is also likely to be discussed, with Lammy telling ITV’s Peston show that “if President Trump does not like the deal, the deal will not go forward”.

Starmer is set to dangle the prospect of a second state visit to the UK for Trump. “He’s very fond of the royal family, as you know,” he said. A No 10 spokesperson added: “President Trump has a great and deep respect for the royal family and has met King Charles on several occasions. The prime minister would absolutely welcome a visit by President Trump to the UK in the future.”

Source: The Guardian

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