President’s approval rating remains stubbornly below 50 per cent but Barack Obama won from a similar position
President Biden has earmarked next week to announce that he plans to run for a second White House term, confounding critics who say he ought to hand over to a younger candidate.
Next Tuesday has been set aside for the launch of a campaign video, which will confirm that he will seek another four years in office. During a recent trip to Ireland, he told reporters that he planned to make a formal declaration “relatively soon”.
Tuesday marks the fourth anniversary of his 2020 campaign launch, a move that surprised many who had assumed he would retire after leaving the Obama administration in 2017.
There had been reports that he planned to confirm a bid for re-election after the State of the Union address in early February and insiders have cautioned that unforeseen events could yet delay the Tuesday announcement.
The planning for the start of the campaign has been in preparation for months. The president is expected to welcome significant Democrat donors to Washington for a dinner next Friday, April 28, when he will explain his ambitions for a second term.
At 80, Biden is already the oldest man to serve as president. He would be 86 at the end of a second term in 2029.
His advanced years and a number of gaffes had prompted speculation that he might decide against standing. A number of alternative Democratic candidates, including Gavin Newsom, the California governor, JB Pritzker, his Illinois counterpart, and Kamala Harris, the vice-president, all of whom are known to covet the White House, have time on their side and are unlikely to risk dividing the party.
White House insiders have said for some time that staff are being prepared for another campaign, which will almost certainly include Harris staying on as Biden’s vice-president.
He is unlikely to face a serious Democratic challenger, although two other party members have announced bids. The activist Marianne Williamson and the anti-vaccine campaigner Robert Kennedy Jr, son of the former attorney-general who was assassinated in 1968 during his own presidential campaign, have launched White House bids but are widely tipped to be also-rans.
The president hopes that an improving economy, particularly slowing inflation, will convince voters to reward him with a second term. He is also likely to use his steadfast support for Ukraine in its war against Russia to burnish his foreign policy credentials.
There is little he can do to persuade the Trump-supporting wing of the Republican party to switch sides, but Biden has repeatedly attempted to drive a wedge between Republicans who back the former president and moderates who are concerned about Trump’s personal conduct.
Trump, 76, has a healthy lead in the race for the Republican nomination at this stage, making a re-match of the 2020 race highly possible.
In a speech in Baltimore last month, Biden stressed the need for Democrats to go out and sell his administration’s accomplishments. “If we did nothing — nothing — but implement what we’ve already passed and let the people know who did it for them, we win,” Biden said. “But we’re way beyond that. It’s not just about winning.”
The president will need to balance appealing to America’s swing voters with ensuring his own Democratic base comes out to support him.
Democrats on the left of the party are concerned about a number of social issues. Biden has stressed the need for federal legislation to uphold abortion rights, one of the issues that is likely to dominate next year’s election campaign.
This month the White House proposed federal legislation that would forbid schools and colleges from enacting outright bans on transgender athletes, although caveats were also suggested.
The president will need to overcome voters’ suspicion about his ability to serve for another four years, while his nationwide approval ratings have been stuck in the low 40s for some time.
FiveThirtyEight, a polling firm that tracks Biden’s approval rating, says that about 43 per cent of voters approve of the job he is doing, compared with 52 per cent who say they disapprove.
The 43 per cent approval rating at this stage in his presidency puts him about level with past presidents who have won — such as Barack Obama (43 per cent) and Ronald Reagan (41 per cent) — and those that have gone on to lose: Trump was at 42 per cent at this stage in 2019 and Jimmy Carter at 40 per cent.
Recent polls for Fox News and Quinnipiac University show approval of Biden’s job performance among Democrats is at about 80 per cent. A Pew Research Center survey that combined Democrats with independents who say they lean towards the Democratic party found his approval rating at 67 per cent.
A recent YouGov poll that pitted Biden and Trump against each other again next time saw 41 per cent saying that they thought Biden would win against 37 per cent for Trump.
Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, is Trump’s strongest opponent for the Republican nomination. In most polls he is slightly ahead of Biden in a straight race.
Source: The Times
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