Saturday, June 28, 2025
No Result
View All Result
newshub
  • Global news
  • Financial insights
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Australia
    • Central Banks
    • China
    • Commodities
    • Europe
    • Banking
    • Corporate
    • Neobanking
    • Investment
    • Japan
    • South East Asia
    • Stock of the week
    • UK
    • US
  • Fin & tech
    • AI
    • Blockchain
    • Crypto
    • MSTRpay
    • Tech
  • Climate & energy
    • Climate
    • Carbon
    • Coal
    • Disruptive
    • Gas
    • Nuclear
    • Oil
    • Solar
    • Water
    • Waves
    • Wind
    • Renewable
    • South America
  • Lifestyle
    • Best chefs
    • Cocktail of the week
    • History
    • Influential women
    • Weekend longread
  • WEX
    • Alt Kap Holding AB
    • Digital Network Holding, Inc.
    • Fantas-E AB
    • International Clean Energy Inc.
    • Intritum Partner Limited
    • Intritum Recycling GH Limited
    • MSTRpay AB
    • SWAP Services, Inc.
    • VMT Holding, Inc.
    • Universal Streaming Technologies – USTA
    • TC Unterhaltungselektronik AG
  • Global news
  • Financial insights
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Australia
    • Central Banks
    • China
    • Commodities
    • Europe
    • Banking
    • Corporate
    • Neobanking
    • Investment
    • Japan
    • South East Asia
    • Stock of the week
    • UK
    • US
  • Fin & tech
    • AI
    • Blockchain
    • Crypto
    • MSTRpay
    • Tech
  • Climate & energy
    • Climate
    • Carbon
    • Coal
    • Disruptive
    • Gas
    • Nuclear
    • Oil
    • Solar
    • Water
    • Waves
    • Wind
    • Renewable
    • South America
  • Lifestyle
    • Best chefs
    • Cocktail of the week
    • History
    • Influential women
    • Weekend longread
  • WEX
    • Alt Kap Holding AB
    • Digital Network Holding, Inc.
    • Fantas-E AB
    • International Clean Energy Inc.
    • Intritum Partner Limited
    • Intritum Recycling GH Limited
    • MSTRpay AB
    • SWAP Services, Inc.
    • VMT Holding, Inc.
    • Universal Streaming Technologies – USTA
    • TC Unterhaltungselektronik AG
No Result
View All Result
newshub
No Result
View All Result
ADVERTISEMENT

The US Fed to hike by 75 bps again on November 2

2022/10/25/07:46
in Financial insights, US
Reading Time: 3 mins read
248 5
A A
The US Fed to hike by 75 bps again on November 2
MSTRpay MSTRpay MSTRpay
ADVERTISEMENT

The U.S. Federal Reserve will go for its fourth consecutive 75 basis point interest rate hike on Nov. 2, according to economists polled by Reuters, who said the central bank should not pause until inflation falls to around half its current level.

Its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades has brought with it ever-bigger recession risks. The survey also showed a median 65% probability of one within a year, up from 45%.

Still, a strong majority of economists, 86 of 90, predicted policymakers would hike the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.75%-4.00% next week as inflation remains high and unemployment is near pre-pandemic lows.

Results in the poll are in line with interest rate futures pricing. Only four respondents predicted a 50 basis point move.

“The front-loading of policy rate tightening we have seen up to now has been aimed at getting to a positive real fed funds rate at the start of 2023,” said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, referring to rates adjusted for inflation.

“Instead of a pivot, in our view, the Fed is signalling that they foresee shifting from front-loading up to December, towards more of a more grinding pace of hikes from then onward.”

A majority of economists in the Oct. 17-24 poll forecast another 50 basis point hike in December, taking the funds rate to 4.25%-4.50% by end-2022. That matches the Fed’s “dot plot” median projection.

The fund’s rate was expected to peak at 4.50%-4.75% or higher in Q1 2023, according to 49 of 80 economists. But the risks to that terminal rate were skewed to the upside, according to all but one of the 40 who answered an additional question.

Fed officials have begun contemplating when they should slow the pace of rate hikes as they take stock of their impact given it takes many months for any rate move to take effect.

Asked about what level of sustained inflation the Fed should consider pausing – currently running above 8% according to the consumer price index (CPI) – the median from 22 respondents said 4.4%, according to that measure.

The Fed targets the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, but the survey suggests roughly half the current rate of inflation ought to be a turning point. PCE inflation was forecast above target until 2025 at least.

CPI inflation was not expected to halve until Q2 2023, according to the poll, averaging 8.1%, 3.9% and 2.5% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively.

“Fed officials have indicated that pausing is only possible after ‘clear and compelling evidence inflation has moderated,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

“With the Fed continuing its aggressive tightening to rein in persistent inflation, we expect a moderate recession likely to begin in Q3 next year as the real growth would dip negative and the unemployment rate will rise substantially.”

Next year the economy was expected to expand just 0.4% – a forecast that has been downgraded in each consecutive monthly Reuters poll since the Fed first started hiking in March – after growing 1.7% on average this year.

The unemployment rate was expected to average 3.7% this year before rising to 4.4% and 4.8% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, an upgrade from the previous poll but significantly lower than the highs seen in previous recessions.

Still, the chances of a sharp rise in unemployment in the United States over the coming year were high, according to over half of respondents to an additional question, 23 of 41. Eighteen said the chances were low.

Source: Reuters

Related Posts

No Messi magic for markets
Financial insights

Week that went: Markets edge forward amid geopolitical shadows and central bank caution

by newshub
2 hours ago

Global financial markets moved cautiously higher this week, balancing modest gains with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and mixed economic...

Read moreDetails
Top 5 finance reads shaping global markets today, Tuesday

European markets edge lower as investors await key US inflation data

1 day ago
Global markets mixed, headed for annual loss

Asian stocks slip as caution lingers ahead of inflation data and Fed remarks

1 day ago
Shell to become Europe’s largest renewable gas producer

Caution dominates as European markets open lower

2 days ago
Asia stocks mixed as soaring dollar pauses

Asia rallies as yen slides and investors eye key inflation data

2 days ago
Stocks tumble after inflation stays hotter than expected

Markets edge higher as tech leads in London and Wall Street opens flat

3 days ago
No Result
View All Result

Recent Posts

  • Lotus to halt UK sportscar production, risking over a thousand jobs – video
  • Zopa enters current account market with cashback and standout savings rate
  • Senate shields Trump’s Iran war powers in narrow vote
  • Week that went: Markets edge forward amid geopolitical shadows and central bank caution
  • On this day in 1914: World War I started

Recent Comments

    Archives

    • June 2025
    • May 2025
    • April 2025
    • March 2025
    • February 2025
    • January 2025
    • December 2024
    • November 2024
    • October 2024
    • September 2024
    • August 2024
    • July 2024
    • June 2024
    • May 2024
    • April 2024
    • March 2024
    • February 2024
    • January 2024
    • December 2023
    • November 2023
    • October 2023
    • September 2023
    • August 2023
    • July 2023
    • June 2023
    • May 2023
    • April 2023
    • March 2023
    • February 2023
    • January 2023
    • December 2022
    • November 2022
    • October 2022
    • September 2022
    • August 2022

    Categories

    • Africa
    • AI
    • An diesem Tag
    • Asia
    • Australia
    • Banking
    • Best chefs
    • Biden
    • Blockchain
    • Blockchain technology
    • Carbon
    • Central Banks
    • China
    • Climate
    • Climate & Energy
    • Coal
    • Cocktail of the week
    • Commodities
    • Corporate
    • Crypto
    • Deutsch
    • Deutsch PR
    • Digital Banking
    • English PR
    • Europe
    • Financial insights
    • Focus on neobanking
    • Gas
    • Global news
    • Harris
    • History
    • India
    • Influential women
    • Invest and Rest
    • Italiano PR
    • Japan
    • Lifestyle
    • Metaverse
    • MSTRpay
    • Neobanking
    • News
    • newshub special
    • newshub-special
    • NFT
    • Nobel Prizes 2024
    • Nuclear
    • Oil
    • Press
    • Press releases
    • Pressroom
    • Renewable
    • Russia
    • Solar
    • South America
    • South East Asia
    • Stock of the week
    • Stocks
    • Svensk PR
    • Tech
    • Trump
    • Trump trials
    • UFO
    • UK
    • UK News
    • Ukraine
    • US
    • US politics
    • Waves
    • Weekend longread
    • WEX
    • Wind

    Meta

    • Log in
    • Entries feed
    • Comments feed
    • WordPress.org

    Recent Posts

    • Lotus to halt UK sportscar production, risking over a thousand jobs – video
    • Zopa enters current account market with cashback and standout savings rate
    • Senate shields Trump’s Iran war powers in narrow vote
    • Week that went: Markets edge forward amid geopolitical shadows and central bank caution
    • On this day in 1914: World War I started

    Categories

    • Africa
    • AI
    • An diesem Tag
    • Asia
    • Australia
    • Banking
    • Best chefs
    • Biden
    • Blockchain
    • Blockchain technology
    • Carbon
    • Central Banks
    • China
    • Climate
    • Climate & Energy
    • Coal
    • Cocktail of the week
    • Commodities
    • Corporate
    • Crypto
    • Deutsch
    • Deutsch PR
    • Digital Banking
    • English PR
    • Europe
    • Financial insights
    • Focus on neobanking
    • Gas
    • Global news
    • Harris
    • History
    • India
    • Influential women
    • Invest and Rest
    • Italiano PR
    • Japan
    • Lifestyle
    • Metaverse
    • MSTRpay
    • Neobanking
    • News
    • newshub special
    • newshub-special
    • NFT
    • Nobel Prizes 2024
    • Nuclear
    • Oil
    • Press
    • Press releases
    • Pressroom
    • Renewable
    • Russia
    • Solar
    • South America
    • South East Asia
    • Stock of the week
    • Stocks
    • Svensk PR
    • Tech
    • Trump
    • Trump trials
    • UFO
    • UK
    • UK News
    • Ukraine
    • US
    • US politics
    • Waves
    • Weekend longread
    • WEX
    • Wind

    Archives

    • June 2025
    • May 2025
    • April 2025
    • March 2025
    • February 2025
    • January 2025
    • December 2024
    • November 2024
    • October 2024
    • September 2024
    • August 2024
    • July 2024
    • June 2024
    • May 2024
    • April 2024
    • March 2024
    • February 2024
    • January 2024
    • December 2023
    • November 2023
    • October 2023
    • September 2023
    • August 2023
    • July 2023
    • June 2023
    • May 2023
    • April 2023
    • March 2023
    • February 2023
    • January 2023
    • December 2022
    • November 2022
    • October 2022
    • September 2022
    • August 2022
    newshub

    © 2023-2025
    MSTRpay & PAXIT
    Legal & Disclosure

    • Global news
    • Financial insights
    • Fin & tech
    • Climate & energy
    • Lifestyle
    • WEX

    Welcome Back!

    Login to your account below

    Forgotten Password?

    Retrieve your password

    Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

    Log In

    Add New Playlist

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Global news
    • Financial insights
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Australia
      • Central Banks
      • China
      • Commodities
      • Europe
      • Banking
      • Corporate
      • Neobanking
      • Investment
      • Japan
      • South East Asia
      • Stock of the week
      • UK
      • US
    • Fin & tech
      • AI
      • Blockchain
      • Crypto
      • MSTRpay
      • Tech
    • Climate & energy
      • Climate
      • Carbon
      • Coal
      • Disruptive
      • Gas
      • Nuclear
      • Oil
      • Solar
      • Water
      • Waves
      • Wind
      • Renewable
      • South America
    • Lifestyle
      • Best chefs
      • Cocktail of the week
      • History
      • Influential women
      • Weekend longread
    • WEX
      • Alt Kap Holding AB
      • Digital Network Holding, Inc.
      • Fantas-E AB
      • International Clean Energy Inc.
      • Intritum Partner Limited
      • Intritum Recycling GH Limited
      • MSTRpay AB
      • SWAP Services, Inc.
      • VMT Holding, Inc.
      • Universal Streaming Technologies – USTA
      • TC Unterhaltungselektronik AG

    © 2023-2025
    MSTRpay & PAXIT
    Legal & Disclosure